CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-02-16T04:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-02-16T04:24ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44676/-1
CME Note: Large CME first seen to the E in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2026-02-16T04:24Z. This CME is also seen to the E in SOHO LASCO C3 and as a partial halo in STEREO A COR2 with the bulk to the E. The CME is also seen to the E in GOES CCOR-1, but the majority of its propagation is obscured by Earth-shine. There appears to be some northward deflection very early in the propagation of the CME in the SOHO LASCO C2 FOV. The source of this CME is associated with an occulted M2.4 flare from beyond the E limb (~S10) that peaked at 2026-02-16T04:35Z. The associated eruption and ejecta can be seen across SDO AIA wavelengths, but the flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131. No clear arrival signature seen in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-18T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:
SIDC URSIGRAM 60217 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Feb 2026, 1249UT SIDC FORECAST ... Coronal mass ejections: A faint and wider coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images starting around 14:00 UTC on Feb 16. This CME is associated to a filament eruption in the S hemisphere (S3-25 W0-17) of the Sun starting around 12:30 UTC. It has a projected speed of about 457 km/s and a projected width of about 110 deg. With its source region closer to the central meridian, the corresponding ICME is expected to impact the Earth on Feb 19-20.Lead Time: 29.53 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2026-02-16T22:28Z
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